The White House Forecasts AI Expansion to Drive Economic Growth

The White House recently released a paper titled “Artificial Intelligence and the Great Divergence,” which draws parallels between the impact of the industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries and the current era. The document highlights the pivotal role of artificial intelligence (AI) in shaping global economies and underlines its central position in U.S. economic strategy.

According to the paper, AI has become a key driver of economic growth in the United States, with significant investments in AI infrastructure such as data centers contributing to a 1.3% increase in GDP in the first half of 2025. This growth is likened to the transformative impact of the railway network during the industrial revolution.

“Artificial Intelligence and the Great Divergence” emphasizes the importance of AI in enhancing productivity and presents various estimates of AI’s potential impact on GDP, ranging from single-digit increases to a remarkable 20% growth in productivity within a decade. The paper even explores more radical scenarios where AI could lead to GDP growth exceeding 45% by replacing human labor in the long term.

The paper reveals that capital deployment in AI infrastructure, rather than consumer spending or public investment, is now a primary driver of economic growth in the U.S. Investments in data processing equipment, buildings, infrastructure, and software have surged, with AI-related infrastructure accounting for a significant portion of total U.S. investment in 2025.

Furthermore, the document highlights the exponential growth in AI compute capacity and the rapid advancement of AI systems in completing tasks. It also notes the increasing adoption of AI by organizations and workers in the U.S., signaling a shift from experimental use to mainstream production.

On the global scale, the paper positions AI as a factor contributing to the divergence in economic prosperity, with the U.S. leading in private AI investment, model development, and compute capacity. The European Union (EU) lags behind in AI metrics, while China remains a significant player in the AI landscape, albeit reliant on U.S.-designed hardware for model training.

The White House publication advocates for a cohesive national strategy with investment incentives to drive AI innovation. Policies such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act aim to boost GDP growth by incentivizing investments in data centers and IT infrastructure. Deregulation in the AI industry is also promoted to enhance productivity and foster innovation.

Notably, the paper underscores the energy-intensive nature of AI data centers and emphasizes the importance of energy supply in supporting AI infrastructure. It predicts a substantial increase in electricity consumption by AI infrastructure by 2028, highlighting the critical role of energy availability in maintaining international leadership in AI.

In conclusion, the report asserts that countries leading in AI investment and adoption will experience accelerated economic growth. The United States is strategically aligning policies to maintain its leadership in the AI sector, with businesses that align with national goals poised to drive the next phase of global economic growth.

(Image source: “Chicago Thaws into Spring” by Trey Ratcliff is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.)

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