Thriving in Tomorrow: Executives’ Bright Outlook on the Future

The Latest Study on AI Impact at the Firm Level

A groundbreaking international study on the impact of AI on firms has recently been released, revealing some surprising findings. The study, which surveyed nearly 6,000 executives across four countries, found that AI has led to modest changes in productivity and employment over the past three years. This indicates that the technology is still in the early stages of deployment rather than being ineffective.

The research paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and conducted by teams from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank, and Macquarie University, discovered that more than 90% of firms reported no significant changes in headcount due to AI. This suggests that while AI adoption is widespread, its impact is still incremental rather than transformative, which aligns with the historical evolution of general-purpose technologies.

AI adoption is on the rise, with around 69% of firms currently utilizing some form of AI technology. Leading the pack are LLM-based text generation, data processing through machine learning, and visual content creation. In the UK, the adoption of AI by firms increased from 61% to 71% in 2025. AI tools have become integrated into daily workflows, and while the measured impact may lag behind adoption, the overall trend is positive.

The Anticipated Acceleration of AI Impact

Executives are optimistic about the future impact of AI, with an expected increase of 1.4% in productivity and 0.8% in output over the next three years. US executives project a 2.25% productivity gain, while UK firms expect 1.86%. These gains are significant, especially in economies facing weak productivity growth, as they can lead to incremental improvements that boost national outputs.

When it comes to employment, executives foresee a modest 0.7% reduction in headcount across the four countries in the same period. In the UK, most of this adjustment is expected to occur through slower hiring rather than layoffs, indicating a gradual shift in roles rather than immediate job losses. This pattern mirrors past waves of automation, where job creation in new roles offset reductions in existing positions.

Comparing Expectations: Executives vs. Workers

The study also compared the expectations of executives with those of workers. US employees anticipate a 0.5% increase in employment at their firms over the next three years, while executives predict a 1.2% reduction. Employees expect productivity gains of 0.92%, lower than the executive forecast of 2.25%.

This disparity in expectations can be attributed to different perspectives. Executives focus on cost structures and competition, while employees experience the benefits of AI in their daily tasks. In practice, AI systems are often deployed to augment rather than replace human workers, particularly in knowledge-intensive fields. Evidence from trials shows that productivity gains are often seen among less experienced staff, with improvements in quality alongside increased output.

The Significance of AI Impact Data

The study’s design and methodology play a crucial role in interpreting the data. While there are variations in figures from different surveys, the phone-verified responses from CEOs and CFOs in this study provide valuable insights. The anticipated inflection point in AI impact over the next three years suggests that as deployments mature and integration improves, the technology’s economic benefits will become more apparent.

Overall, the study highlights the importance of understanding how AI can drive productivity and employment changes in the future. As organizations continue to adopt AI technologies, the focus will shift towards maximizing the economic gains from widespread implementation.

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